ESSAY TOPIC:Monsoon and its effect on Indian economy

Monsoon and its effect on Indian economy

Monsoon plays a crucial role in the Indian economy. Since India is primarily an agricultural nation it banks heavily on good monsoons. A good monsoon is favourable for farmers while poor or insufficient rainfall can cause crop failure. This directly affects the economy of the country. Read on to understand the impact monsoon has on Indian economy

Understanding Relationship between Monsoon and Indian Economy

A country's economy is dependent on Industrial sector and agriculture. India is mainly an agricultural country with over 70% of its people directly related to farming. To sustain agriculture the land requires adequate rainfall each season. Hence, annual rainfall is of prime importance. South –West monsoon typically arrives in the Indian sub-continent sometime in end May/early June and continues until September. The country receives major share of rains in this period. The North East monsoon arrives in December in the Southern hemisphere of India mainly as cyclonic storms. 

The country's economy gets a boost and it is able to maintain its GDP in the wake of a good monsoon. However, if monsoon gets delayed by even a fortnight it can spell disaster and it becomes difficult for India to maintain growth in GDP. 

2012 Monsoon Cause for Worry

The year is at its fag end and the rainfall so far has been normal so far. The Meteorological Department has declared a poor show by the monsoon which has given rise to concerns. Poor monsoon is a result of El Niño, a climatic occurrence in the Pacific Ocean that happens every few years and affects the monsoon in this part of the planet. 

The figures given out by the meteorological department show over 12% deficits in rainfall this season. It is a cause for concern as a huge deficit is recorded in major agricultural states of India, namely Haryana and Punjab. 

Concerns Over Late Monsoon

Delayed monsoon have become a cause for worry for all States in India. The reservoirs in Southern states are at an alarmingly low level. Water shortage is indicative by the frequent power cuts in all districts. Effects of the delayed monsoon can be observed by the update on Bhakra Nangal dam (the largest dam in India) which has reached seriously low level. Low water is effecting production of hydropower in the North and the inhabitants face a similar power situation as their counterparts in Southern states.

Effects of Normal Rainfall

A normal rainfall this year would have likely prompted the government to ease cutbacks on its export policy. In the years 2010 and 2011, due to a good monsoon the Indian government had eased curb on export of rice and wheat which was good for the economical growth. 
The production of oil seeds and grains gets a boost when rainfall is normal. A good crop indirectly curbs inflation which does not seem likely this year.

Analysis of rainfall in the previous years

The year 2011 was a good year for rains. Monsoon reached the Southern coast of Kerala two days ahead of schedule. It was gradually inward bound reaching the state of Maharashtra and rest of the country in short time. The country recorded an above average rainfall which resulted in a good crop of oil seeds and grain.

Parts of North India witnessed heavy rainfall during the last monsoons, especially during its onset. Many places were inundated with water and there was food alert in many districts in Northern India. Showers in the month of July were comparatively less last year while August saw the monsoon strike in all its glory again.

The average rainfall recorded during monsoons each year is around 652mm. Rainfall received last year was less than that average.

Comparative Analysis of Below Average Rainfall and its Consequences

In 2009 monsoon in India was not well distributed. While monsoon showers soaked the Southern states the rains were actually late in arriving by a few days. Even though monsoon hit the Indian coast in end June in 2009 it did not reach the states in the North. New Delhi experienced an almost dry spell that year. The poor monsoon resulted in failure of crops which directly affected the prices of products. Power supply was also disrupted because of failed monsoon, which affected production in industries causing further price hike. Lack of rainfall in Bihar brought about a drought like condition in the state. With prices of major consumables touching an all time high, inflation saw an escalation. 

The year 2012 seems to be heading in the same direction with very less rainfall recorded so far. Less rainfall directly impacts the agricultural sector of the country as well as the industrial sector which too feels the crunch because of power cuts. Fast moving consumer goods companies are most hit by deficit rainfall as they source their material from rural agricultural market. Too add to their woes is the deficiency in power and water supply which are essential for production. Power shortage affects production across the board as all industrial units require electricity to run their plants. They use alternatives such as generators to keep production going, but this increases the production cost for which the end consumer has to shell out more.

Significance of Monsoon on Agriculture

Monsoon is essential for quite a few crops in India. Kharif crop which is sown in March depends on monsoon rains. States of Gujarat and Rajasthan sow peanuts just before the rains arrive. If rains do not arrive in time or are scanty the crop fails. This is also the season for paddy plantation in Uttar Pradesh. Paddy is dependent on rainfall for good harvesting. Monsoon influences many other crops across the country. Soya bean, sugarcane, cotton, rice and millet are some of the crops that flourish when rainfall is good.

The meteorological department has declared approximately 30% deficit in rainfall this year. Which means rainfall in the year 2012 is below normal. This will adversely affect the crops grown in this season.

Conclusion

Less rainfall does not spell good tidings. As it has been mentioned above it affects the whole community. Less rainfall puts everything in disarray. The effects of recession are still lurking in the shadows and to it is added a poor monsoon which could be disastrous. 
We need to work on strategies that remove our dependency on monsoon. The need of the hour is better conveniences for the agricultural sector. One way of doing so is through building of more dams and reservoirs. We need to protect our water bodies and increase the ground water table. This is only possible with sustained rain water harvesting. Use of better techniques and equipment could go a long way in helping farmers manage their crop without relying on monsoons.